23 ноември 2007

ВАЖНИ НЕЩА, които нямаше да знам, ако нямах деца

  1. Водното легло "King Style" съдържа достатъчно вода, за да запълни дом от 200 кв.м. с езеро 12 см дълбочина.
  2. Гласът на 4 годишен тиквеник може да заглуши 200 нормално беседващи възрастни в препълнен ресторант.
  3. Ако вържете кучешки повод за стаен вентилатор, мотора на последния не е достатъчно мощен да повдигне във въздуха 23 килограмов идиот в костюм на супермен. От друга страна е достатъчно мощен за да разпредели равномерно
  4. боята от буркана в ръката на "Супермен" по стените на стая 7Х7м.
  5. Когато вентилатора е включен, не следва към него да се хвърлят бейзболни топки.
  6. Стъклото на прозореца, дори двуслойно, не се явява препятствие за бейзболната топка, ударена от перката на вентилатора.
  7. Ако от банята се чува шума от отваряне на тоалетното шкафче с вашата козметика, след това звън на стъкло и после детско гласче "Оооопс, ама аз....", - то вече е късно.
  8. Спирачна течност смесена с хлоросъдържащ препарат за чистене на санитарен фаянс създават дим. Много дим.
  9. 4 годишен МОЖЕ да запали огън ползвайки камъни, колкото и да твърдя, че това става само на кино.
  10. Циментово тесто и микровълнова печка не се понасят.
  11. Суперцимента е суперцимент. Даже и забъркан от 4 годишен, той е завинаги. Даже и да не е на подходящото място.
  12. Колкото и кутии "Джел -оу"(плодово желе) да сипеш в басейна, това не помага да ходиш по водата.
  13. Филтрите на басеина не обичат "Джел-оу".
  14. Стъклените топчета в резервоара издават много неприятен шум по време на каране.
  15. По-добре да не се опитваш да разбереш откъде е този мирис.
  16. Винаги трябва да се поглежда във фурната преди включване. Фурните не са особено добре настроени към пластмасови детски играчки.
  17. На пожарната и трябват 6 минути за да стигне до вкъщи.
  18. Центрофугата на пералнята не докарва световъртеж на дъждовните червеи.
  19. Центрофугата на пералнята докарва световъртеж на котката.
  20. Котката може да повърне почти колкото тежи, когато има световъртеж.

24 септември 2007

subprime loan debacle

BEGINNING OF ARTICLE

Due to the recent market volatility, provoked by the sudden "subprime loan debacle", many subscribers have been interested to know my personal view on this subject, especially that it is something I have been talking about for the last 4 months. But before I go on with this little dissertation I want you to understand that I don't pretend to be an economist, I simply use "basic economics 101", which is something our financial leaders maybe should use.


Basically, when it gets to be complicated and does not make sense, chances are it isn't right. However I am convinced that they basically complicate the principles of a healthy economic logic so that the average unaware person gets lost and therefore doesn't ask any questions in fear of sounding stupid, or they just repeat what they hear on the media to sound educated during cocktail parties.


I told my subscribers in the room that the recent hasty moves from the Fed, (from several massive injections of cash into the market to the recent 1/2 point rate cut was a desperate and hasty move. This "patch the holes" moves, is rendering the market a great disservice, and it will make things a lot worse for the long term.

Basically, the Fed is adding water pump to a sinking ship, instead of fixing the holes, and eventually the ship will sink anyway, because nothing has been fixed. But I don't think they care, they need to make the masses feel better now, because they need a happy consumer to keep on buying crap.

However as harsh as it sounds and as painful as it will be (but not a politically popular move) it is a needed economic cycle, needed to purge the excess and this imbalance that have been created in order to begin a new healthy, and lasting positive economic cycle. The "band aid solution" ( "instant feel better") will only delay the inevitable and once it comes, instead of going thru a "mild and short recession" it will be a lot more painful possibly creating if not a depression but at least a SEVERE long and VERY painful recession .

This credit debacle is far more serious than most even begin to realize, and here is why I think so:

I have been talking for quite a while now (way b4 all this emerged) that we are at a critical credit and liquidity imbalance , and it goes all the way down to the low income consumer. Our consumption society as a whole is now mostly based on borrowed money, practically no one nowadays has the discipline to save his cash to buy XYZ item or a car or take a vacation. Most spend more time planning "credit vacation" than they spend planning healthy finances.
For example I have witnessed in both Europe and the US (I have lived in both continents long enough and have the advantage of knowing both very, very well) and observed consumption habits on both continents and the similarities are very scary, of course the US is by far still the "the leader of the pack".

In general I have observed that families with medium limited incomes were basically shopping on credit most of the time, either for clothes, cars, food, electronics, and vacation. During X-mass time I was amazed to see so many getting trapped in the "buy now pay later" ingenious concept of stores, not to mention store's credit cards which of course are a dangerous sucker trap. Nowadays just about everything they have in their house doesn't belong to them, but to the financing company, and that includes X-mass toys and vacation they took 2 years ago that they are still paying for, and of course expensive cars.

In my parent's days they saved for everything. But at the end whatever they had in their house was 100% paid for, their vacation was 100% paid for, and they still managed to save some hard cold cash for rainy days.

Today the people not only don't have a decent nest egg, they just don't have any, but they drive Mercedes, BMW's, have entertainment centers that would make George Lucas look like a hobo....

In my parent's days whomever was driving an expensive car (well most of the time) really could afford it and actually had money. Today I see in Europe for example, 20 year old kids making 1.500 euro/month at best driving expensive automobiles. Basically, this consumption society is completely out of whack and is imbalanced.

So when it comes to people and real estate, why are we so surprised? It is the same mentality, they have used their overpriced houses like an ATM machine, courtesy of clever and creative financing method to either make some other ludicrous over priced real estate acquisitions they can't afford (hell, they could barely afford the first one in the first place if it had not been for ("creative mortgage facility"), or buying all types of useless adult toys, not to mention extravagant home improvements or vacations.

They bought into the nonsense of these realtors and the media that real estate would go up indefinitely, these realtors, most of whom are no more than improved shoes salesmen and Tupperware housewives have been taught in an 8 hours seminar learning the cookie cutter classic economic theories why real estate will always go up. The funny thing is I hear the same logic being used in the US and in Europe. They all must attend the same 8 hours seminars, and all become economic experts at the end of it, why not!!! They have certificates of completion to prove it...And the media is basically owned and operated by the ones that want the mass to consume and spend for the benefit of some other companies they own. "The basic Asylum runs by its patients"

Now you might think what is then the relationship with subprime loan? well here it is in a nutshell: ( I will simplify the process for you):
This is what Banks, and financial institutions do (which are more worried of making short term money to obtain fat bonuses and fat executive salaries):

They borrow money in Yen (Japan has the lowest interest rate of all industrialized country) actually at almost 0 %, and they either invest in equity and debt markets around the globe (also creating a bubble on borrowed money, btw), and also they loan that borrowed money to other financial institutions that create all sort of "exotic mortgages", and "credit facility", you name it. Then some other layers of financial institutions re-package all these different forms of loans into high yield financial instruments to be parceled out and sold back to the financial institutions that had borrowed money in the first place. Basically, they are creating a gigantic credit Ponzi scheme on borrowed money with the consumer as its base for guarantee, and since the consumer himself is over extended, I don't need to tell you what will happen next.

Of course we try to find an easy typical fall guy "Wall Street" for creating all these derivative instruments, all they did is they found an opportunity and ran with it to make money.

The real "crew of culprits "are the highest and also the lowest level on the food chain, the higher ones: well, we vote for them and the mass buy into their self serving demagogic promises and speeches, the lowest one is the consumer gullible naivety, and greed.

Almost all financial experts want us to believe that whatever the fed is doing is good. Think again.

This will not save the people that are about to lose their homes, this will not save the basic overextended consumer, since most all exotic Mortgage and credit companies are closing their doors anyway, and even the conservative ones are now on "survival mode", they will not cut any slack to the overextended and delinquent consumer, on the contrary. No matter how much liquidity the FED is pouring and no matter how many times they cut rates. The surviving institutions are now in contraction mode, too busy doing damage control or even saving themselves. The only money they will loan back in the market will be to people that don't need it.

The only thing you will see will be fake "dead cat bounces" but at the end the real estate is "cooked" (actually it has been cooked for over 2 years , the masses just didn't know it yet and still don't even know it or to what extend it will be cooked). Houses that are sold today for 2 million dollars they will be lucky to get 1 million for it, and if they even get that.

Keep in mind that in the next year another $700 billion or so of "adjustable mortgage are due to reset, that is over $170 billion more than this year, and more adjustable mortgages will be reset after 2008.

This massive liquidity and credit imbalance which started over that last 20 years or so is only about to enter a severe readjustment and it has barely just begun. I just don't know how long and how it will play out, but it will play out.
Of course the Fed/government will play some of its "voodoo" economic short term magic tricks just in time to benefit some "crooked, lying, greedy, performing monkey ass politicians" election or re election, and it will make the "masses" feel better in short term, just in time to cast their vote, all this trumpeted by their favorite interested (paid off or own) accomplices "cheer leaders", the media.

Also don't forget, because it is related and will play a major role in this grand skim of things, that the US is running an unprecedented account deficit , basically in less than 8 years the current US administration have borrowed more money than any other administration put together, so if the country enters a severe recession ( which I think it will ) not only the US government does not have a "nest egg" but it has blown its wad by already overextending itself "debt wise" and in a period of decent economic time I may add, (for their own benefit btw, but that is another subject all together) .

So when we finally enter this severe recession the US government has already blown most of its "borrowing options"(during the good times), the only option it has left will be to go much deeper in debt rendering the US dollar as valuable as the pesos, the consequences of that will also be severe, and they will have to raise taxes drastically, just to pay the " bar tab" of the previous administration. So when I hear deficit don't matter they will re think that theory very soon, but of course the "fearless leaders" who left the restaurant with this "orgy tab" will be out of office by then, enjoying their pontificated retirement and collecting book deals, consulting deals, speech deals, and other corporate deals they worked out before, leaving the already over extended US taxpayers to pick up the "orgy bill" (via increased taxes) for decades to come. Hell, the US taxpayers are still paying for the S&L debacle they don't even know it, but trust me there (that was when Mr. Bush senior was VP, interestingly enough, most best S&L debacle asset that went into auctions were picked up at ridiculous bargain prices by some of Mr. Bush Senior's friends .The public was only allowed to bid for the chairs and tables and the bailout package was provided again- courtesy of the taxpayers.
END OF ARTICLE
It's Felix again :) So I finished reading this article, and I am like: "So Rob, what's your point?" I guess I like to transfer everything into practical advice.
Here is my opinion on this whole situation. After the Great Depression in the US, World War II followed. During World War II, people went into factories to build military equipment, in order to satisfy the demands of the War. After the War was over, the momentum of American production stayed, but instead factories shifted to producing a lot of the goods for local consumption, so the economy flourished. Now history repeated itself with Asia. Asia was in a mess, before the Americans started to massively consume the goods that were produced there. Asians have been working very hard for very little money to satisfy the Americans and Europeans. The only problem is that instead of paying them real money, the US has mostly been issuing them a bunch of "I owe you X amount notes". And then the US consumer has been buying these goods by issuing the same notes to its government. One of the reasons why the US economy flourished so much is because it's been getting basically stuff for FREE :) Everybody thinks that Asians depend on the US and will keep giving them free stuff forever, but they have such big population, and they have so much momentum in their economy that when the time comes, they'll simply make a similar switch like the US did after World War II, and will simply start consuming their own produced goods.
So what's the point? The point is that the US has been issuing so much money in order to continue getting stuff for free, that it even stopped reporting its money supply a while back. Bottom line is that I think that every person that currently owns US dollars is extremely lucky, because they own something that has a lot more buying power than it's supposed to. So if I were you, instead of using your dollars to buy consumer goods that will depreciate in value very rapidly, I would buy something that's more real and permanent, like gold and silver. Imagine that you own a bunch of toilet paper, and by some madness, everybody thinks that it's worth a lot, but you as a sane person realize, that very soon there will come a day, when people will realize that toilet paper has value indeed, but not as much value as everybody thought it had during this madness.
Anyway, that's my take on it, I may be wrong. I know most Asians are very nice people, so they may just forgive all the debts, and consider that all the manufacturing work they did was nice exercise for their bodies, and they loved doing it so much, that they don't mind not getting paid for it.
Thanks :)
-Felix

1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA

11 юли 2007

Сексистки шеги /с предварително извинение/

ONE LINERS - (APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE)

  • All wives are alike, but they have different faces so you can tell them apart.
  • Bigamy is having one wife too many. Some say monogamy is the same.
  • Did you hear about the guy who finally figured out women? He died laughing before he could tell anybody.
  • Do you know why they call it the Wonder Bra? When you take it off you wonder where her tits went.
  • How can I get rid of some ugly fat? Send her home to mother.
  • How can you tell a macho woman? She rolls her own tampons.
  • How can you tell if a woman is wearing panty hose? Her ankles swell up when she farts.
  • How can you tell if you are squeezing a woman the right way? You'll feel her crack.
  • How can you tell if you eat pussy well? You wake up in the morning with a face like a glazed doughnut and a beard like an unwashed paintbrush.
  • How can you tell if your wife is dead? The sex is the same, but the dishes pile up
  • How do you annoy your girlfriend during sex? Phone her.
  • How do you fix a woman's watch? You don't. There's a clock on the oven!
  • How do you know god meant for men to eat pussy? Why else would he make it look like a taco.
  • How do you know when a woman's about to say something smart? When she starts her sentence with "A man once told me..."
  • How do you make a woman scream for an hour after sex? Wipe your dick on the curtains.
  • How do you make a woman scream twice? Fuck her in the ass, then wipe your dick on the curtains.
  • How do you tell if your woman is sexually aroused? When you put your hand inside her panties it feels like a horse eating oats.
  • How do you turn a fox into an elephant? Marry it!
  • How does a man show he's planning for the Future? He buys two cases of beer instead of one.
  • How many male chauvinists does it take to change a light bulb? - None - let the bitch do it after she's done the dishes.
  • How many men does it take to fix a vacuum cleaner? Why the fuck should we fix it, we don't use the damn thing!
  • How many men does it take to open a bottle of beer? None. It should be opened by the time she brings it to you!
  • If you are having sex with TWO women and ONE more woman walks in, what do you have? Divorce proceedings, most likely.
  • If your dog is barking at the back door and your wife is yelling at the front door, who do you let in first? The dog of course...at least he'll shut up after you let him in.
  • Scientists have discovered one certain food that diminishes a woman's sex drive by 90%...wedding cake
  • What are the three fastest means of communication? 1) Internet 2) Telephone 3) Telewoman
  • What are the three reasons that anal sex is better than vaginal sex? Its warmer, its tighter and its more degrading to the woman.
  • What do you call a woman who can suck an orange through a water hose? Darling.
  • What do you call a woman who has lost 95% of her intelligence? Divorced.
  • What do you call a woman with two brain cells? Pregnant.
  • What do you call pulling off a woman's panty hose? Foreplay
  • What do you call the useless piece of skin around the fanny? A woman.
  • What do you do when your dishwasher stops working? Give her a kick.
  • What do you tell a woman with two black eyes? Fucking nothing, you've already told her twice !!!!
  • What does a toilet and a woman have in common? Without the hole in the middle they aren't worth a shit
  • What does an AIDS patient and the man you caught in bed with your wife have in common? Both have fucked into an early death
  • What is the definition of "making love"? Something a woman does while a guy is shagging her.
  • What is the difference between a battery and a woman? A battery has a positive side.
  • What is the difference between a Harley and a Hoover? The location of the dirt bag.
  • What should you do if your girlfriend starts smoking? Slow down and use a lubricant.
  • What should you give a woman who has everything? A man to show her how to work it.
  • What’s the difference between a pregnant woman and a light bulb? You can unscrew a light bulb
  • What's a wife? An attachment you screw on the bed to get the housework done.
  • What's it called when a woman is paralysed from the waist down? Marriage.
  • What's six Inches long, two Inches wide, and drives women wild? Money
  • What's the definition of a male chauvinist pig? A man who hates every bone in a woman's body except his own.
  • What's the definition of a woman? A life support system for a pussy.
  • What's the definition of the menstrual period? A bloody waste of fucking time.
  • What's the definition of virginity? A big issue over a little tissue.
  • What's the difference between a wife and a condom? Nothing! They both spend too much time in your wallet and not enough on your dick.
  • What's the difference between a woman and a coffin? You come in one and go out in the other.
  • What's the difference between a woman and a computer? You only need to punch information into a computer once!
  • What's the difference between a woman and a toilet? A toilet does not follow you around once you've used it.
  • What's the difference between a woman with PMS and a pit bull? Lipstick.
  • What's the difference between a woman's athletic team and a tribe of pygmies? The pygmies are a bunch of cunning runts....
  • What's the difference between oral sex and anal sex? Oral sex makes your day, anal sex makes your hole weak [whole week..!]
  • What's the difference between P.M.S. and B.S.E? One's mad cow disease, the other's an agricultural problem.
  • What's the difference between your wife and your job? After five years, your job will still suck.
  • What's the hardest part of a sex change operation? Removing half the brain.
  • What's the most active muscle in woman? The penis.
  • What's the smartest thing to come out of a woman's mouth? Albert Einstein's dick.
  • What's worse than a Male Chauvinist Pig? A woman that won't do what she's told.
  • Why are clams like women? When the red tide comes, you don’t eat them.
  • Why are hangovers better than women? Hangovers will go away.
  • Why are hurricanes called after women's names? What starts as a small blow ends up taking half your house away.
  • Why are twisters (tornadoes) and marriage alike? They both begin with a lot of blowing and sucking, and in the end you lose your house.
  • Why are women like parking spaces? The best ones are taken, and the rest are handicapped.
  • Why are women like rocks? The flat ones are better to skip.
  • Why are women like screen doors? Once they get banged a few times they loosen up.
  • Why can't you trust women? How can you trust something that bleeds for five days and not die.
  • Why did cave men drag their women around by the hair? Because they would fill up with dirt if you drag them around by the feet.
  • Why did God create woman? Because sheep can't cook.
  • Why did God create woman? To carry semen from the bedroom to the toilet.
  • Why did god give women orgasms? So they can moan all night as well.
  • Why did god make man first? Because he did not want a woman looking over his shoulder.
  • Why did the army send so many women with PMS to the Persian Gulf? They fought like animals and retained water for four days.
  • Why do hunters make the best lovers? Because they go deep in the bush, shoot more than once and they eat what they shoot.
  • Why do little girls carry gold fish in their pockets? To smell like big girls.
  • Why do men die before their wives? They want to.
  • Why do men fart more than women? Because women won't shut up long enough to build up pressure.
  • Why do women close their eyes during sex? They can't stand to see a man having a good time.
  • Why do women fake orgasms? Because they think men care.
  • Why do women have belly buttons? To hold your gum on the way down.
  • Why do women have legs? So they don't leave snail trails.
  • Why do women have more trouble with haemorrhoids than men? Because God made man the perfect asshole.
  • Why do women have periods? Because they deserve them.
  • Why do women have smaller feet than men? So they can stand nearer the sink.
  • Why do women pay more attention to their appearance than to improving their minds? Because most men are 'stupid' but few are blind.
  • Why do women skydivers wear tampons? So they don't whistle on the way down.
  • Why does a bride smile when she walks up the aisle? She knows she's given her last blow job.
  • Why does the bride always wear white? Because it is good for the dishwasher to match the stove and refrigerator.
  • Why is a Launderette a really bad place to pick up a woman? Because a woman who can't even afford a washing machine will never be able to support you.
  • Why is a pussy like a warm toilet seat? Both feel good but you wonder who was there before you,
  • Why is a woman like a condom? Both of them spend more time in your wallet than on your dick.
  • Why is a woman like a laxative? They both irritate the shit out of you.
  • Why is the space between a women's breasts and her hips called a waist? Because you could easily fit another pair of tits in there.

MOTORHEAD LYRICS

MOTORHEAD LYRICS